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If there’s no restaurant, we should feel the same confusion we feel when a bill has sat on the floor of Grand Central Station for a week.
So for Google to remain underpriced when your uncle sees it, you have to assume everyone at every Wall Street hedge fund has just failed to notice this tremendous money-making opportunity – the same sort of implausible failure as a staying on the floor of Grand Central for a week.
If you see a bill lying on the sidewalk in Grand Central Station, and you remember having seen the same bill a week ago, something is wrong. But there’s no way that such a low-hanging piece of money-making fruit would go unpicked for that long.
Thousands of people cross Grand Central every week – there’s no way a thousand people would all pass up a free . In the same way, suppose your uncle buys a lot of Google stock, because he’s heard Google has cool self-driving cars that will be the next big thing. No – if Google stock was underpriced (ie you could easily get rich by buying Google stock), then everyone smart enough to notice would buy it.
All the sick people would go to them, they would make lots of money, investors would trip over each other to fund their expansion into new markets, and eventually they would take over health care and be super rich.
So “health care is inefficient and overpriced” seems like the same kind of statement as “a bill has been on the floor of Grand Central Station for a week and nobody has picked it up.” Therefore, health care isn’t inefficient or overpriced.
This isn’t to say nobody can ever win a Nobel Prize.